Big Cap Alpha – Stats

Big Cap Alpha

​A Professional Quant Based Portfolio Trading Strategy

Big Cap Alpha enables you to achieve 20-25% annual returns trading S&P 100 stocks. The general concept underlying Big Cap Alpha is that equities tend to revert to their recent price ranges when they get stretched too far. We’ve extended this concept by incorporating multiple measures of price “stretching” into our entry/exit decisions. Each portfolio uses defined profit targets and stop losses.

  • Multiple portfolio based strategies to choose from
  • Trades only S&P 100 stocks
  • Long trades only
  • Developed by professional quant based researchers
  • Trades take about five to ten minutes per day to enter
  • Results live from January 2016

With your subscription you receive:

Daily signals for three portfolios. First month is free. Then ​$97/month

Many of you know that I love trading and creating quant systems. In my 25 years of trading, I’ve analyzed and created 100’s if not 1000’s of trading strategies, and I’m still more blown away with this strategy than anything else I have ever seen.

Here’s why…

1) It averages 20% a year since 2006. (That includes the 2008 crash and the 2011 swoon).

2) It ONLY trades S&P 100 stocks.

This strategy only uses the biggest, safest, lowest volatility and most liquid stocks in US stock market and it’s producing 20% returns yearly. These are the stocks most traders don’t like because “they don’t move enough,” and we are buying these low volatility S&P 100 stocks precisely at the times that they actually do move. Having phenomenal returns with these low volatility, stable, and relatively safe stocks is exactly what ALPHA is.

The equity curve on these strategies is amazing. Look at other strategies. For other strategies to get an equity curve with this profitability they use very volatile stocks which creates two problems. One, there are big equity drawdowns and two the stocks can’t handle any volume. Because of that there are slippage and spread problems which means those strategies are not even reproducible. In other words, it’s a fool’s errand…Nothing but a pipe dream.

With Big Cap Alpha you are only trading the biggest, highest volume stocks. The results we are getting (Cesar and I have been trading Big Cap Alpha for many months) are exactly like the tested results.

These results were so good; Cesar spent 3 months after he found this edge just trying to disprove this strategy using everything from Monte Carlo runs, to changing his testing parameters, and then using p-values with out of sample data. At the end of the day, we were convinced that we had uncovered something good.

Oh yeah…Maximum drawdown of about 15%!

With that in mind, this is the one strategy I didn’t even want to offer. I thought it was time to start the hedge fund. But, honestly, Cesar’s mission has always been that whatever we trade, anyone should be able to trade because that’s how we got our start. Someone shared with us, and it’s changed everything for both of us.

Steven Gabriel
Cesar's trading buddy and fellow researcher

With your subscription you receive:

Daily signals for three portfolios. First month is free. Then ​$97/month


Choose the Portfolio that is Best for You

Testing period is from Jan 1, 2006 to March 31, 2017

Portfolio 1 - Gemma

Portfolio Statistics

  • ​22.7% Compounded Annual Returns
  • ​82.0% Exposure
  • ​1.6 Sharpe Ratio
  • Top three drawdowns(-17.4, -15.9, -13.3)
  • -10.9% Worst 3 month return
  • +1.7% Worst 12 month return
  • +22.9% Best 3 month return
  • +86.3% Best 12 month return
  • .69 correlation with the S&P500 index

Equity Curve

Trades Statistics

  • ​2323 trades
  • 56.9% winners
  • 3.34% Average % profit on winning trades
  • 2.92% Average % loss on losing trades
  • -31.5% Worst trade
  • 59.8% best trade

More Details

  • ​Maximum of 5 positions
  • Up to 20% percent of portfolio per position
  • 12.0% Maximum Loss stops hit

Monthly Returns (click for larger image)

I have over a decade of quant trading experience and am the Chief Investment Officer for a quant-based advisory firm. I’ve known Cesar for 8 years and he is my first and foremost “go-to” resource for financial markets research, quantified strategy development, and coding. Unlike some theoretical “quants,” Cesar is also a trader. He understands the markets and the real-world limitations of broker order offerings, liquidity, and order placement.

Rob Davenport, LCA Capital, LLC​

Rob Davenport 

Portfolio 2 - Rana

Portfolio Statistics

  • ​22.1% Compounded Annual Returns
  • ​83.6% Exposure
  • ​1.6 Sharpe Ratio
  • Top three drawdowns(-16.7, -15.6, -11.8)
  • -9.1% Worst 3 month return
  • +3.1% Worst 12 month return
  • +24.1% Best 3 month return
  • +49.8% Best 12 month return
  • .67 correlation with the S&P500 index

Equity Curve

Trades Statistics

  • ​2606 trades
  • 56.2% winners
  • 3.13% Average % profit on winning trades
  • -2.73% Average % loss on losing trades
  • -39.4% Worst trade
  • 64.8% best trade

More Details

  • ​Maximum of 5 positions
  • Up to 20% percent of portfolio per position
  • 10.3% Maximum Loss stops hit

Monthly Returns (click for larger image)

There’s no way I’d be professionally managing money today were it not for the professional advice and help of Cesar Alvarez. I’ve yet to meet a trader/researcher with such a superb understanding of the markets; as well as the dangerous trapdoors that await if you decide to develop your own quant system.

Mark Angil, Architect of Midway II, 1st Place Winner of BattleFin’s Sharpe Ratio Shootout International Quant Finance Tournament 4.0 (Pro Division)​

Mark Angil 

Portfolio 3 - Zibal

Portfolio Statistics

  • ​18.6% Compounded Annual Returns
  • ​72.2% Exposure
  • ​1.6 Sharpe Ratio
  • Top three drawdowns(-13.7, -12.0, -10.5)
  • -6.9% Worst 3 month return
  • -7.4% Worst 12 month return
  • +18.0% Best 3 month return
  • +55.5% Best 12 month return
  • .57 correlation with the S&P500 index

Equity Curve

Trades Statistics

  • ​1910 trades
  • 57.3% winners
  • 3.12% Average % profit on winning trades
  • 2.66% Average % loss on losing trades
  • -21.1% Worst trade
  • 64.8% best trade

More Details

  • ​Maximum of 5 positions
  • Up to 20% percent of portfolio per position
  • 10% Maximum Loss stops hit

Monthly Returns (click for larger image)

I have been corresponding with Cesar and following his work for several years. His research is first rate and his reports are clear and unambiguous. He is an expert trading system developer and programmer. Most importantly, he has discovered profitable and persistent patterns, and developed profitable and practical trading systems around them.

Dr. Howard Bandy 
Recognized Quant Author

S&P 500 Index performance from 1/1/2006 to 3/31/2017

  • ​7.9% Compounded annual return
  • -55.2% Drawdown

Big Cap Alpha portfolios have over times return with less than one-half the drawdown.

Start your free one month trial

During your trial you will have access to all previous signals and commentary. At all times you will have the ability to email questions to Cesar or Steve.

After the first month, the cost is $97/month​. 

The Researchers

Cesar Alvarez

Many of you know Cesar as the Director of Trading Strategies at TradingMarkets.com and Connors Research for the past decade. Cesar has also developed many strategies for private equity funds, is the author of multiple books on trading, and — in a former life — was a Software Engineer on the early versions of Microsoft Excel. After so many years developing well over 100 different methodologies, Cesar, like many true masters of his profession, has come back to the point of ultimate simplicity and efficiency as the best sustainable approach to active trading.​

and Steven Gabriel

Steven has an extensive history trading equities, options, futures, and volatility. For the past 13 years he has been a quant-based trader, working alongside Cesar on research for 100’s of different ideas, concepts, strategies, and systems. Steve is also an Emergency Room physician. But he only practices medicine half-time now, because his success in trading financial markets is now a lucrative passion, often generating over 50% return a year.

Frequently Asked Questions

Are these simulated results? Yes, these are simulated results. Read the disclaimer for more details.

C​lick here for more FAQs

Still can't find your question answered, contact us​.

Start your free one month trial

During your trial you will have access to all previous signals and commentary. At all times you will have the ability to email questions to Cesar or Steve.

After the first month, the cost is $97/month​.