ETF Bear Trader – Stats

ETF Bear Trader

​A Professional Quant Based Portfolio Trading Strategy

ETF Bear Trader is a highly innovative short ETF strategy. When traded with our long SPY strategy, the combined effect is a compounded annual growth rate of 22% with a maximum drawdown under 20% over the last 10 years. Or if you only want to short ETFs, it achieves a 12% per year compounded annual growth rate with less than 15% market exposure. It is extremely uncorrelated with the market and complements and hedges any long exposure strategy that you are trading.

  • Developed by professional quant based traders
  • Trades 24 highly liquid Exchange Traded Funds (see list on FAQ page)
  • Short only portfolios and Short/Long portfolios
  • Trades are entered outside market hours
  • Takes less than 10 minutes per night to trade
  • Strong performance in down markets
  • Live signals since June 2016

With your subscription you receive:

Daily signals for six portfolios. First month is free. Then ​$89/month

The core of the ETF Bear Trader system makes short trades on highly liquid sector ETFs at times of weakness. Most people think of sector ETFs as financial instruments that don’t typically move very quickly. As you can see from the results below though, being short these instruments at the right time can be very lucrative.

Just as importantly, the ETF Bear Trader system knows when not to fight the market. This allows you to preserve your profits rather than watching them erode as the market is grinding higher. It also means that you’ll have spare capital to allocate toward other strategies that excel in bull markets.

If you prefer to trade this strategy as a stand-alone system, we’ll help you juice your returns by trading the SPY when it’s inappropriate to be in short trades. Notice in the tables below how most of the 0% monthly returns from each base strategy turn into positive values in the "prime" version of the strategy!

If your trading toolbox needs a tool that helps you weather bear markets, you owe it to yourself to check out ETF Bear Trader. Whether you trade it alongside your existing long strategies or stand-alone with the long SPY option, your trading account will thank you.

Matt Radtke
Fellow researcher

With your subscription you receive:

Daily signals for six portfolios. First month is free. Then ​$89/month


Choose the Portfolio that is Best for You

Testing period is from Jan 1, 2007 to March 31, 2017

Portfolio 1 - Cygnus

Portfolio Statistics

  • ​11.3% Compounded Annual Returns
  • ​12.3% Exposure
  • ​0.94 Sharpe Ratio
  • Top three drawdowns(-16.4, -11.8, -10.0)
  • -5.0% Worst 3 month return
  • -5.0% Worst 12 month return
  • +35.0% Best 3 month return
  • +46.1% Best 12 month return
  • -.51 correlation with the S&P500 index

Equity Curve

Trades Statistics

  • ​88 trades
  • 70.4% winners
  • 10.16% Average % profit on winning trades
  • 5.93% Average % loss on losing trades
  • -14.4% Worst trade
  • 28.6% best trade
  • 13.2 average trading days held

More Info

  • ​Short only
  • Maximum risk of 3% per position
  • Up to 33% percent of portfolio per position
  • 50% Profit Targets hit
  • 15% Maximum Loss stops hit

Monthly Returns (click for larger image)

Portfolio 2 - Cygnus-Prime

This portfolio can trade the SPY when there are no open short positions. The SPY position is at 100% of capital.

Portfolio Statistics

  • ​22.7% Compounded Annual Returns
  • ​83.0% Exposure
  • ​1.4 Sharpe Ratio
  • Top three drawdowns(-18.7, -16.8, -15.7)
  • -17.8% Worst 3 month return
  • -3.0% Worst 12 month return
  • +35.0% Best 3 month return
  • +62.7% Best 12 month return
  • -.02 correlation with the S&P500 index

Equity Curve

Trades Statistics

  • 111 trades
  • 73.0% winners
  • 10.2% Average % profit on winning trades (short)
  • -5.7% Average % loss on losing trades (short)
  • 6.2% Average % profit on winning trades (long)
  • -2.3% Average % loss on losing trades (long)
  • -14.4% Worst trade
  • 29.7% best trade
  • 14.2 Average trading day held (short)
  • 80.3 Average trading day held (long)

More Info

  • Short ETFs and long SPY
  • ​Maximum risk of 3% per position
  • Up to 33% percent of portfolio per position for shorts. 100% invested for long.
  • 40% Profit Targets hit
  • 12% Maximum Loss stops hit

Monthly Returns (click for larger image)

There’s no way I’d be professionally managing money today were it not for the professional advice and help of Cesar Alvarez. I’ve yet to meet a trader/researcher with such a superb understanding of the markets; as well as the dangerous trapdoors that await if you decide to develop your own quant system.

Mark Angil, Architect of Midway II, 1st Place Winner of BattleFin’s Sharpe Ratio Shootout International Quant Finance Tournament 4.0 (Pro Division)​

Mark Angil 

Portfolio 3 - Pyxis

Portfolio Statistics

  • ​11.4% Compounded Annual Returns
  • ​13.4% Exposure
  • ​.88 Sharpe Ratio
  • Top three drawdowns(-16.4, -13.3, -10.0)
  • -5.9% Worst 3 month return
  • -5.0% Worst 12 month return
  • +39.5% Best 3 month return
  • +51.3% Best 12 month return
  • -.49 correlation with the S&P500 index

Equity Curve

Trades Statistics

  • 101 trades
  • 69.3% winners
  • 9.8% Average % profit on winning trades
  • -6.3% Average % loss on losing trades
  • -14.4% Worst trade
  • 28.6% best trade
  • 12.4 Average bars held

More Details

  • ​Maximum risk of 3% per position
  • Up to 33% percent of portfolio per position
  • 54% Profit Targets hit
  • 18% Maximum Loss stops hit

Monthly Returns (click for larger image)

Portfolio 4 - Pyxis Prime

This portfolio can trade the SPY when there are no open short positions. The SPY position is at 100% of capital.

Portfolio Statistics

  • ​23.3% Compounded Annual Returns
  • ​82.9% Exposure
  • ​1.3 Sharpe Ratio
  • Top three drawdowns(-18.7, -16.8, -15.7)
  • -17.8% Worst 3 month return
  • -.9% Worst 12 month return
  • +39.5% Best 3 month return
  • +68.6% Best 12 month return
  • -.05 correlation with the S&P500 index

Equity Curve

Trades Statistics

  • 126 trades
  • 71.4% winners
  • 9.8% Average % profit on winning trades (short)
  • -6.3% Average % loss on losing trades (short)
  • 6.0% Average % profit on winning trades (long)
  • -1.7% Average % loss on losing trades (long)
  • -14.4% Worst trade
  • 29.7% best trade
  • 12.4 Average trading days held (short)
  • 71 Average trading days held (long)

More Details

  • Short ETFs and long SPY
  • ​Maximum risk of 3% per position
  • Up to 33% percent of portfolio per position for shorts. 100% for long.
  • 43% Profit Targets hit
  • 14% Maximum Loss stops hit

Monthly Returns (click for larger image)

I have over a decade of quant trading experience and am the Chief Investment Officer for a quant-based advisory firm. I’ve known Cesar for 8 years and he is my first and foremost “go-to” resource for financial markets research, quantified strategy development, and coding. Unlike some theoretical “quants,” Cesar is also a trader. He understands the markets and the real-world limitations of broker order offerings, liquidity, and order placement.

Rob Davenport, LCA Capital, LLC​

Rob Davenport 

Portfolio 5 - Volans

Portfolio Statistics

  • ​8.3% Compounded Annual Returns
  • ​14.5% Exposure
  • ​.67 Sharpe Ratio
  • Top three drawdowns(-19.6, -13.6, -10.7)
  • -7.5% Worst 3 month return
  • -7.5% Worst 12 month return
  • +40.8% Best 3 month return
  • +63.9% Best 12 month return
  • -.57 correlation with the S&P500 index

Equity Curve

Trades Statistics

  • ​107 trades
  • 58.8% winners
  • 9.02% Average % profit on winning trades
  • 4.99% Average % loss on losing trades
  • -14.4% Worst trade
  • 28.6% best trade
  • 11.1 average trading days held

More Details

  • ​Maximum risk of 3% per position
  • Up to 33% percent of portfolio per position
  • 46% Profit Targets hit
  • 35% Maximum Loss stops hit

Monthly Returns (click for larger image)

Portfolio 6 - Volans Prime

This portfolio can trade the SPY when there are no open short positions. The SPY position is at 100% of capital.

Portfolio Statistics

  • ​18.5% Compounded Annual Returns
  • ​82.9% Exposure
  • ​1.1 Sharpe Ratio
  • Top three drawdowns(-20.4, -18.7, -15.8)
  • -14.6% Worst 3 month return
  • -6.9% Worst 12 month return
  • +40.7% Best 3 month return
  • +82.7% Best 12 month return
  • -.12 correlation with the S&P500 index

Equity Curve

Trades Statistics

  • 134 trades
  • 63.4% winners
  • 9.0% Average % profit on winning trades (short)
  • -5.0% Average % loss on losing trades (short)
  • 5.2% Average % profit on winning trades (long)
  • -2.3% Average % loss on losing trades (long)
  • -14.4% Worst trade
  • 29.7% best trade
  • 11.2 Average trading days held (short)
  • 67 Average trading days held (long)

More Details

  • Short ETFs and long SPY
  • ​Maximum risk of 3% per position
  • Up to 33% percent of portfolio per position for shorts. 100% for long.
  • 37% Profit Targets hit
  • 28% Maximum Loss stops hit

Monthly Returns (click for larger image)

I have been corresponding with Cesar and following his work for several years. His research is first rate and his reports are clear and unambiguous. He is an expert trading system developer and programmer. Most importantly, he has discovered profitable and persistent patterns, and developed profitable and practical trading systems around them.

Dr. Howard Bandy 
Recognized Quant Author

S&P 500 Index performance from 1/1/2007 to 3/31/2017

  • ​7.3% Compounded annual return
  • -55.2% Drawdown
  • .44 Sharpe Ratio

ETF Bear Trader portfolios have exceeded the return with less than one-half the drawdown.

Start your free one month trial

During your trial you will have access to all previous signals and commentary. At all times you will have the ability to email questions to Cesar or Matt.

After the first month, the cost is $89/month​. 

The Researchers

Cesar Alvarez

Many of you know Cesar as the Director of Trading Strategies at TradingMarkets.com and Connors Research for the past decade. Cesar has also developed many strategies for private equity funds, is the author of multiple books on trading, and — in a former life — was a Software Engineer on the early versions of Microsoft Excel. After so many years developing well over 100 different methodologies, Cesar, like many true masters of his profession, has come back to the point of ultimate simplicity and efficiency as the best sustainable approach to active trading.​

and Matt Radtke

Matt Radtke is a Michigan State University graduate with a BS in Computer Science. He has over 25 years of software development experience in companies large and small, including Hewlett-Packard and Bell Northern Research. During his ten years with a Boulder, CO software firm he rose from the position of senior software engineer to Vice President of Engineering. Matt has been actively trading stocks, ETFs, and options since 2008, and has recently started exploring futures. Over the past several years he has been associated with the Connors Group family of companies, first as a student, then as a consultant, researcher, author and presenter. 

Frequently Asked Questions

Are these simulated results? Yes, these are simulated results. Read the disclaimer for more details.

C​lick here for more FAQs

Still can't find your question answered, contact us​.

Start your free one month trial

During your trial you will have access to all previous signals and commentary. At all times you will have the ability to email questions to Cesar or Matt.

After the first month, the cost is $89/month​.