Volatility Trend Trader – Stats

Volatility Trend Trader

​A Professional Quant Based Portfolio Trading Strategy

Volatility Trend Trader is the result of analyzing volatility in a completely new way. We have scoured the web and can not find anyone looking at volatility in this way. The back-tested results are profound. Using just 50% of your account value (the other 50% would be in cash), the strategy is generating 50% annual returns with a maximum draw-down of just 20% by trading both long (VXX) and short volatility (SVXY). The results are breathtaking.

  • Trades only VXX & SVXY
  • Long trades only
  • For experienced traders only
  • Live signals since November 2016
  • Developed by professional quant based researchers
  • Trades take about five to ten minutes per day to enter

With your subscription you receive:

Daily signals for three portfolios. First month is free. Then ​$99/month

This may be the simplest and most profitable trading strategy that I've ever traded in my 20 years of trading experience.

As an independent strategy, this strategy seems to find exactly when to be short volatility and when to be long volatility. Incredible. I'm even using it now as an indicator for when to get out of other long positions.

I've learned over the years that between my long-term holds and my daily trading that my whole account is essentially short volatility. I've added in only the long volatility component just so I can hedge my account when the market starts going down. Phenomenal.

Steven Gabriel
Cesar's trading buddy and fellow researcher

With your subscription you receive:

Daily signals for three portfolios. First month is free. Then ​$99/month


Choose the Portfolio that is Best for You

Testing period is from Jan 1, 2011 to September 30, 2017

Portfolio 1 - SVXY/VXX

This portfolio has a maximum position size of 50%. This is done to deal with the potential of 100% loss in either trade and keep drawdowns reasonable. The portfolio can be 50% long in VXX or long 50% in SVXY or 100% cash. Before 1/1/2012 the backtest portfolio traded XIV instead of SVXY.

Portfolio Statistics

  • 56.9% Compounded Annual Returns
  • 42.9% Exposure
  • 1.9 Sharpe Ratio
  • Top three drawdowns(-29.0, -20.2, -19.2)
  • -18.6% Worst 3 month return
  • +7.1% Worst 12 month return
  • +63.2% Best 3 month return
  • +198.5% Best 12 month return
  • .02 correlation with the S&P500 index

Equity Curve

Trades Statistics

  • 194 trades
  • 55.7% winners
  • 10.2% Average % profit on winning trades
  • 4.9% Average % loss on losing trades
  • -24.4% Worst trade
  • 77.5% best trade
  • 7.3 average trading days held

More Details

  • ​Maximum of 1 position
  • Up to 50% percent of portfolio per position

Monthly Returns 

I have over a decade of quant trading experience and am the Chief Investment Officer for a quant-based advisory firm. I’ve known Cesar for 8 years and he is my first and foremost “go-to” resource for financial markets research, quantified strategy development, and coding. Unlike some theoretical “quants,” Cesar is also a trader. He understands the markets and the real-world limitations of broker order offerings, liquidity, and order placement.

Rob Davenport, LCA Capital, LLC​

Rob Davenport 

Portfolio 2 - VXX Only

This portfolio can be 100% long VXX or 100% cash.

Portfolio Statistics

  • 21.5% Compounded Annual Returns
  • 30.8% Exposure
  • .57 Sharpe Ratio
  • Top three drawdowns(-38.6, -26.4, -25.8)
  • -25.0% Worst 3 month return
  • -31.8% Worst 12 month return
  • +95.1% Best 3 month return
  • +146.7% Best 12 month return
  • -.50 correlation with the S&P500 index

Equity Curve

Trades Statistics

  • 105 trades
  • 46.7% winners
  • 8.7% Average % profit on winning trades
  • -4.3% Average % loss on losing trades
  • -18.5% Worst trade
  • 77.5% best trade
  • 5.0  average trading days held

More Details

  • ​Maximum of 1 position
  • Up to 100% percent of portfolio in VXX

Monthly Returns 

There’s no way I’d be professionally managing money today were it not for the professional advice and help of Cesar Alvarez. I’ve yet to meet a trader/researcher with such a superb understanding of the markets; as well as the dangerous trapdoors that await if you decide to develop your own quant system.

Mark Angil, Architect of Midway II, 1st Place Winner of BattleFin’s Sharpe Ratio Shootout International Quant Finance Tournament 4.0 (Pro Division)​

Mark Angil 

Portfolio 3 - SVXY Only

This portfolio can be 75% long SVXY or 100% cash. Limit SVXY sizing because of risk of 100% loss in SVXY. Before 1/1/2012 the backtest portfolio traded XIV instead of SVXY.

Portfolio Statistics

  • 58.5% Compounded Annual Returns
  • 37.3% Exposure
  • 1.8 Sharpe Ratio
  • Top three drawdowns(-27.7, -20.6, -20.5)
  • -21.6% Worst 3 month return
  • 11.7% Worst 12 month return
  • +59.2% Best 3 month return
  • +244% Best 12 month return
  • .57 correlation with the S&P500 index

Equity Curve

Trades Statistics

  • 82 trades
  • 63.4% winners
  • 12.1% Average % profit on winning trades
  • 5.4% Average % loss on losing trades
  • -17.4% Worst trade
  • 46.7% best trade
  • 10.1 average trading days held

More Details

  • ​Maximum of 1 position
  • Up to 75% percent of portfolio in XIV

Monthly Returns 

I have been corresponding with Cesar and following his work for several years. His research is first rate and his reports are clear and unambiguous. He is an expert trading system developer and programmer. Most importantly, he has discovered profitable and persistent patterns, and developed profitable and practical trading systems around them.

Dr. Howard Bandy 
Recognized Quant Author

SPY performance from 1/1/2011 to 9/30/2017

  • 12.9% Compounded annual return
  • -18.6% Drawdown

Start your free one month trial

During your trial you will have access to all previous signals and commentary. At all times you will have the ability to email questions to Cesar or Matt.

After the first month, the cost is $99/month​. 

The Researchers

Cesar Alvarez

Many of you know Cesar as the Director of Trading Strategies at TradingMarkets.com and Connors Research for the past decade. Cesar has also developed many strategies for private equity funds, is the author of multiple books on trading, and — in a former life — was a Software Engineer on the early versions of Microsoft Excel. After so many years developing well over 100 different methodologies, Cesar, like many true masters of his profession, has come back to the point of ultimate simplicity and efficiency as the best sustainable approach to active trading.​

and Matt Radtke

Matt Radtke is a Michigan State University graduate with a BS in Computer Science. He has over 25 years of software development experience in companies large and small.  Matt has been actively trading stocks, ETFs, and options since 2008, and has recently started exploring futures. Over the past several years he has been associated with the Connors Group family of companies, first as a student, then as a consultant, researcher, author and presenter.

Frequently Asked Questions

Are these simulated results? Yes, these are simulated results. Read the disclaimer for more details.

C​lick here for more FAQs

Still can't find your question answered, contact us​.

Start your free one month trial

During your trial you will have access to all previous signals and commentary. At all times you will have the ability to email questions to Cesar or Matt.

After the first month, the cost is $99/month​.