- Account Information (change email, status, cancel, etc)
- ETF Bear Trader statistics and information on subscribing.
- Signal table explanation
- Choosing a portfolio
- How to place orders
- Have a plan
- Market Commentary for January 22, 2018
- 2018 January Portfolios for ETF Bear Trader
- Market Commentary December 20, 2017
- Signal Update Process and Errors
- 2017 December Portfolios for ETF Bear Trader
- Market Commentary, November 20, 2017
- README: Signals late for 11/20/2017
- 2017 November Portfolios for ETF Bear Trader
Frequently Asked Questions
Is this service for beginners? No. One should be comfortable trading the markets already and understand the risks of trading.
On an individual trade, can I lose more than what is risked? Yes. ETFs may gap down and sell off substantially. Since we evaluate stops at the close, this means often the trade will lose more than risked.
Are these simulated results? Yes, these are simulated results. Read the disclaimer for more details.
Why did you start testing in 2007? We wanted about 10 years of testing along with multiple market conditions.
What do you use for commission and slippage? We used $.01/share for commission and slippage.
What is the position size for each signal? Typically the position size will be 33% of the account. But because of maximum risk in position and stop position, the position may be smaller.
Do these portfolios use stops or profit targets? They use both. The stops are evaluated at the close and executed on the next open.
Which ETFs are traded? IYR, KBE, KCE, KIE, KRE, QQQ, SPY, XBI, XES, XHB, XLB, XLE, XLF, XLI, XLK, XLP, XLU, XLV, XLY, XME, XOP, XPH, XRT and XSD.
How do I pick which portfolio to trade? Read the Choosing a portfolio post.
When are trades opened? Trades are entered at the open. Signals can happen on any trading day. For more information, see the How to place your orders post.
How long is each position held? The average hold for all portfolios is between 2 to 4 weeks.
When do we exit the trades? Exit signals are executed at the open of the next trading day.
How do I read the signal table? Read this page for an explanation of the signal tables.
Am I guaranteed to make money trading these signals? There is no guarantee the trades will make money. These trades have shown a consistent edge for years. We trade them ourselves. There is a risk of significant losses not seen in the testing.
Does Cesar trade these signals? Absolutely. We wouldn’t be sharing these trades if we didn’t think that they were good enough for us to trade for our own accounts.
How much money should I allocate to this strategy? We cannot give personal trading advice. Cesar puts 20% of his trading account into this strategy. Even though he has confidence in this strategy, one never knows when it will stop working.
How do I get support? Please email us if you have any questions, we will get back to you within 24 hours (sooner in most cases). You can reply to any of our weekly emails or go to the Contact page.
How do I cancel my subscription? On the ‘My Account’ page, you can cancel your subscription. Or write us an email, and we’ll cancel you immediately. We don’t want anyone paying for something that they are not benefiting from.
How do I subscribe? Just click the 'Start My Free Trial' button on the ETF Bear Trader page and you’ll begin receiving emails and have access to our blog and trades page.