Cesar

Author Archives: Cesar

October 22, 2026

2026 October Portfolios for Strata

Signal Table Explanation

Portfolios should be published by 8:15pm Pacific Time. If the signals are not up on time or if you think there is an issue, send email to signals@TranquilityTrading.com. Please do not use the email for general support. For general support go here.

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The date represents the trading day the signals are for.

October 29, 2026

Cretaceous (1) WTD: -0.57 MTD: 4.84 YTD: 57.17
Symbol Date BHS Close % Alloc % P/L Full Name
DBE 8/3/2026 Hold 40.58 50.00 28.79 Invesco DB Energy ETF
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Jurassic (2) WTD: -1.83 MTD: 2.80 YTD: 36.40
Symbol Date BHS Close % Alloc % P/L Full Name
DBA 4/1/2026 Hold 27.11 50.00 -2.35 Invesco DB Agriculture ETF
DBE 10/1/2026 Hold 40.58 50.00 10.18 Invesco DB Energy ETF
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Permian (3) WTD: -1.83 MTD: 2.80 YTD: 36.39
Symbol Date BHS Close % Alloc % P/L Full Name
DBA 4/1/2026 Hold 27.11 50.00 -2.35 Invesco DB Agriculture ETF
DBE 10/1/2026 Hold 40.58 50.00 10.18 Invesco DB Energy ETF
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Data last date 10/28/2026
Run date 10/28/2026
Backtest end date 10/29/2026
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October 28, 2026

Cretaceous (1) WTD: -1.37 MTD: 3.99 YTD: 55.89
Symbol Date BHS Close % Alloc % P/L Full Name
DBE 8/3/2026 Hold 39.96 50.00 26.81 Invesco DB Energy ETF
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Jurassic (2) WTD: -2.16 MTD: 2.45 YTD: 35.94
Symbol Date BHS Close % Alloc % P/L Full Name
DBA 4/1/2026 Hold 27.40 50.00 -1.30 Invesco DB Agriculture ETF
DBE 10/1/2026 Hold 39.96 50.00 8.48 Invesco DB Energy ETF
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Permian (3) WTD: -2.16 MTD: 2.45 YTD: 35.93
Symbol Date BHS Close % Alloc % P/L Full Name
DBA 4/1/2026 Hold 27.40 50.00 -1.30 Invesco DB Agriculture ETF
DBE 10/1/2026 Hold 39.96 50.00 8.48 Invesco DB Energy ETF
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Data last date 10/27/2026
Run date 10/27/2026
Backtest end date 10/28/2026
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October 27, 2026

Cretaceous (1) WTD: -0.65 MTD: 4.75 YTD: 57.03
Symbol Date BHS Close % Alloc % P/L Full Name Industry
DBE 8/3/2026 Hold-ScaleIn 40.51 50.00 28.58 Invesco DB Energy ETF --
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Jurassic (2) WTD: -1.10 MTD: 3.56 YTD: 37.41
Symbol Date BHS Close % Alloc % P/L Full Name Industry
DBA 4/1/2026 Hold-ScaleIn 27.60 50.00 -0.58 Invesco DB Agriculture ETF --
DBE 10/1/2026 Hold-ScaleIn 40.51 50.00 10.00 Invesco DB Energy ETF --
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Permian (3) WTD: -1.10 MTD: 3.56 YTD: 37.40
Symbol Date BHS Close % Alloc % P/L Full Name Industry
DBA 4/1/2026 Hold-ScaleIn 27.60 50.00 -0.58 Invesco DB Agriculture ETF --
DBE 10/1/2026 Hold-ScaleIn 40.51 50.00 10.00 Invesco DB Energy ETF --
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Data last date 10/26/2026
Run date 10/26/2026
Backtest end date 10/27/2026
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October 26, 2026

Cretaceous (1) WTD: 0.00 MTD: 5.77 YTD: 70.62
Symbol Date BHS Close % Alloc % P/L Full Name Industry
DBE 8/3/2026 Hold 41.02 50.00 37.65 Invesco DB Energy ETF --
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Jurassic (2) WTD: 0.00 MTD: 5.19 YTD: 48.10
Symbol Date BHS Close % Alloc % P/L Full Name Industry
DBA 4/1/2026 Hold 27.87 50.00 2.30 Invesco DB Agriculture ETF --
DBE 10/1/2026 Hold 41.02 50.00 11.38 Invesco DB Energy ETF --
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Permian (3) WTD: 0.00 MTD: 5.19 YTD: 48.10
Symbol Date BHS Close % Alloc % P/L Full Name Industry
DBA 4/1/2026 Hold 27.87 50.00 2.30 Invesco DB Agriculture ETF --
DBE 10/1/2026 Hold 41.02 50.00 11.38 Invesco DB Energy ETF --
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Data last date 10/23/2026
Run date 10/23/2026
Backtest end date 10/26/2026
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October 23, 2026

Cretaceous (1) WTD: 0.00 MTD: 0.00 YTD: 0.00
Symbol Date BHS Close % Alloc % P/L Full Name Industry
No new signals or open positions
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Jurassic (2) WTD: 0.00 MTD: 0.00 YTD: 0.00
Symbol Date BHS Close % Alloc % P/L Full Name Industry
No new signals or open positions
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Permian (3) WTD: 0.00 MTD: 0.00 YTD: 0.00
Symbol Date BHS Close % Alloc % P/L Full Name Industry
No new signals or open positions
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Data last date 10/22/2026
Run date 10/22/2026
Backtest end date 10/23/2026
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October 22, 2026

Cretaceous (1) WTD: -0.84 MTD: 2.88 YTD: 54.23
Symbol Date BHS Close % Alloc % P/L Full Name Industry
DBE 8/3/2026 Hold-ScaleIn 39.14 50.00 24.22 Invesco DB Energy ETF --
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Jurassic (2) WTD: -1.02 MTD: 2.60 YTD: 36.13
Symbol Date BHS Close % Alloc % P/L Full Name Industry
DBA 4/1/2026 Hold-ScaleIn 28.12 50.00 1.29 Invesco DB Agriculture ETF --
DBE 10/1/2026 Hold-ScaleIn 39.14 50.00 6.27 Invesco DB Energy ETF --
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Permian (3) WTD: -1.02 MTD: 2.60 YTD: 36.13
Symbol Date BHS Close % Alloc % P/L Full Name Industry
DBA 4/1/2026 Hold-ScaleIn 28.12 50.00 1.29 Invesco DB Agriculture ETF --
DBE 10/1/2026 Hold-ScaleIn 39.14 50.00 6.27 Invesco DB Energy ETF --
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Data last date 10/21/2026
Run date 10/22/2026
Backtest end date 10/22/2026
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October 21, 2026

Strata – Choosing a portfolio

Like our other trading systems, we are providing signals for different variations of the Weathervane strategy. Each portfolio uses the same underlying concepts, applied to a different pair of trading symbols. So which portfolio should you trade? 

One way to select a portfolio is by looking at the performance metrics. Two of my personal favorites are  Compound Annual Return (CAR) and Max Drawdown, because these offer a good summary of reward and risk. If you compare the portfolio for SPY/TLT to the one for QQQ/TLT to the one for SSO/UBT you will discover that as the CAR rises, so do the largest drawdowns. Experienced traders will immediately recognize that this is quite common for trading strategies of all types: higher rewards come with higher risks.

Another way to evaluate the Weathervane portfolios is to consider how they might correlate with your existing strategies. For example, if you already trade a lot of tech stocks then you might not want to amplify your tech exposure by trading the QQQ variation of Market Surfer, as the NDX 100 index that QQQ follows is notably tech-heavy. You can use The Spreadsheet and the Correlation Matrix tools to help you decide.

Good Quant Trading,

Cesar & Steven

October 21, 2026

Strata – How to Place Orders

Having a great set of strategy rules is an important component of being a profitable trader. Just as important, however, is that you execute the strategy rules with precision. If you diverge from the rules, either intentionally (discretion) or unintentionally (mistakes), then it’s likely that your results will differ from ours as well. 

For the Weathervane strategy, good execution is primarily a matter of placing the correct entry and exit orders in a timely manner. It doesn’t matter whether you’re new to trading or very experienced. It doesn’t matter which broker you use. It just matters that you use the information from the Signal Table to place the right trades at the right time. If you ever have questions, we’re happy to answer them. 

Weathervane is a pair trading system that selects one of two possible trading symbols. The evaluation of the preferred symbol is done each day after the market closes, with signals published on the web site later that evening, US Pacific time. Once the signals are available, you can place your orders any time before the next market open.

In all cases, when the strategy rotates from Symbol A to Symbol B or vice versa, you should place both the buy order and the sell order at the SAME time. That way, the capital released by selling the old shares can be used to purchase the new shares. 

Also, unless you have sufficient spare cash in your account, you MUST have a margin account to place these orders. Even though you are not borrowing any money, a brokerage requires a margin type account if you want to reuse your cash on the same day that you exit a position. 

The backtest results were generated by entering at the open.  Cesar uses market on open (MOO) orders to enter his trades on InteractiveBrokers. 

Another common question is how to enter trades that are already open. Cesar takes one of two approaches. The first is simply enter the trade. It does not matter if has been held one day or one month. Just get in. The second method is enter half the trade now and wait a week to enter the other half. This I will do if the market seems really over-bought. A third option is simply for new entry signal. The potential issue with this is it could be weeks before this happens.

Good Quant Trading, 

Cesar & Steve

October 21, 2026

Strata – Have A Plan

One of the advantages of using a quantitative trading system is that there aren’t a lot of day-to-day decisions to make about your trading. The basic plan boils down to “see the signal, take the signal. “ However, there are still times that we must do something a little different, and when those conditions occur, it’s best to already have a plan in place.

Sometimes we have to deviate from the basic plan because the system doesn’t behave exactly as we expect. An example is when a portfolio shows an entry signal for Symbol ABC on Monday, but then shows a “hold” for Symbol XYZ on Wednesday with no corresponding “sell” signal for ABC or “buy” signal for XYZ. This can happen when a small correction in the price data from our data provider changes the relative ranking of different trade candidates or whether a symbol satisfied all the entry conditions needed to generate a signal.

One way to handle this event is to simply realign your positions with the current portfolio holdings as quickly as possible. In the case above, that would mean selling your position in Symbol ABC and opening a new position in Symbol XYZ at Wednesday’s open. That’s how we do it in our own portfolios. Alternatively, you could choose to manage the trade on Symbol ABC yourself, knowing that there will never be an exit posted by the system, but then your results will also deviate from the published system results. The same would be true if you skipped the trade on Symbol XYZ.

How will you handle if you get a signals in Weathervane but you are in the position in another strategy like Market Surfer? Cesar will still take the position because he is comfortable in taking the additional risk.

Another that we need to plan for is called “life.” Very few of us trade every single day that the market is open; we take vacations, move to a new home, attend to family matters, and participate in other activities that prevent us from trading. So what’s your plan when you’re going on vacation?

Our vacation plans usually go something like this. About a week before vacation starts, we stop taking new trades because those trades might not have time to play out before we leave. Meanwhile, we obey all exit signals for our existing positions, and then close any remaining positions on our last day of trading. That way we can leave for vacation with a flat account, and not have to worry about what the market’s doing while we’re trying to enjoy our time away.

Upon return, we have to decide whether to jump into any open positions shown by the system, or just wait for new entry signals. If the average hold time for the system is quite short, then we will usually just wait for new entries. However, if the hold times are measured in weeks or months, then we will enter positions for any open positions to realign ourselves with the system portfolio. Obviously there are more factors that you could consider here, like how long ago the entry signal occurred, how much the price has already moved and in which direction, etc.

Over time, you will discover other events that prevent you from perfectly executing the signals from a quantitative system, and that’s to be expected. The key is to have a set of rules in place that allow you to handle those situations consistently.

Make your plans now.
Cesar & Steve

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